Israel’s threat to Turkey can create a bigger crisis than Syria.
ANKARA — An alarming development is unfolding in the Middle East as Israel and Turkey move toward a clash in Syria, raising fears that the conflict between the two powerful regional actors could escalate into something bigger.
The latest escalation came this week when Tel Aviv attacked Syria’s Abu al-Dahr airbase near Aleppo, just 45-60 kilometers from the Turkish border. Israel says the strikes were aimed at stopping the Turkish military build-up inside Syria as a potential threat. Ankara and Damascus have rejected this explanation and denied Israel’s statement of Turkey’s permanent base or deployment.
The disagreement left Washington scrambling to prevent the conflict from becoming a direct Israeli-Turkish crisis. And behind the immediate controversy lies a larger question: Is Israel underestimating Turkey?
Malcolm Nance, a former U.S. Navy intelligence officer, warned that Turkey could not be treated the way Israel has fought non-state groups in recent years. Turkey is a NATO member with the alliance’s largest military, a rapidly expanding defense industry, NATO-trained pilots, increasingly sophisticated air defenses, and growing naval and drone capabilities, he said.
Israel has fought against Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, but Turkey is a sovereign state with a large conventional military and powerful international connections. Some Israeli voices have expressed confidence that Israel has already taken on Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis and can handle Turkey. Nance’s warning is that such confidence can become a dangerous miscalculation.
The immediate crisis centers on Syria. Israel says it has received intelligence indicating that Syria may allow a Turkish military deployment or build-up that would alter existing security arrangements and potentially jeopardize Israel’s freedom of operation in Syrian airspace.
Israeli officials say warnings were given before the attacks, including informed communications between the Mossad and Syria’s foreign minister. When those warnings failed to produce the desired Israeli response, the military took action.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan against what he described as a “dangerous adventure” in Syria and warned Ankara not to test Israel’s resolve. The strikes reportedly focused on runways and storage facilities, avoiding some older Syrian aircraft.
Turkey has denied that it is preparing the kind of military deployment that Israel has claimed. Ankara also condemned the Israeli strikes as a reckless violation of Syria’s sovereignty and Israel’s justification was unacceptable. This leaves two different versions of events.
Israel says it acted to prevent a dangerous strategic shift. Turkey says Israel attacked based on claims that did not reflect reality. And this difference can become the most dangerous part of the crisis. If Israeli forces continue operations against what is considered Turkish military infrastructure, Ankara may face internal and strategic pressure to respond.
If Turkey begins to increase its military presence in Syria, Israel may see it as a confirmation of its worst fears. The cycle can feed itself.
The US is now trying to prevent the situation from getting worse. The US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrick, called Israel’s action an “unnecessary escalation” and indicated that Turkey had not been warned in advance.
A clash between the two would put America in an exceptionally difficult position. Washington is now working to end the trilateral conflict involving Israel, Turkey and Syria. The goal is straightforward: prevent your forces from accidentally colliding before a local incident becomes a regional crisis.
The military balance is one reason the current situation is attracting so much attention. Turkey has NATO’s largest armed forces in terms of personnel and has spent years building up its domestic arms industry. Its military capabilities now include advanced drones, missiles, air defense systems and naval platforms. Turkey has also expressed willingness to project military power beyond its borders, including in Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus.
Turkish pilots are trained in the NATO system, which adds another layer to the strategic calculation. And then there’s Unserlik. The presence of U.S. forces at Incirlik Air Base illustrates how quickly the Turkish-Israeli conflict can become a U.S. problem. A serious incident involving Turkish forces could therefore have consequences far beyond the battlefield in Syria.
Turkey’s NATO membership is one of the most important factors in the equation, but it is often misunderstood. Article 5 does not mean that every military conflict involving Turkey automatically triggers NATO’s collective war against the opposing side. Circumstances will be important.
A conflict resulting from operations in Syria, for example, will raise difficult questions about how the coalition’s collective defense commitments apply. But even without an automatic military response, Turkey’s NATO membership creates a formidable political barrier against direct war between Israel and Turkey.
It should be noted that Israel and Turkey were once close strategic partners. Military and intelligence cooperation increased substantially during the 1990s and 2000s, and Turkey was the first Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel. This relationship is now almost completely broken.
Erdoğan’s government has become one of Israel’s most strident critics, especially after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and subsequent Gaza War. Turkish officials have maintained ties with Hamas and have repeatedly condemned Israeli military operations.
Pakistan has condemned the Israeli attack on Syria’s Abu Zahar Airbase.
The post Israel’s threat to Turkey can create a bigger crisis than Syria appeared first on Daily Pakistan English News.
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